Weekly Situation Report: War in Ukraine
Read on for our analysis, and check back every Monday for updates on this developing war.
Ukraine and Russia Trade Claims Over Bakhmut, G7 Meeting Proves Fruitful for Zelensky
In an address at the G7 leaders conference in Japan over the weekend, Ukrainian President Zelensky said that the fight for Bakhmut was not over and stressed that his country’s counteroffensive was forthcoming and would result in regaining lost territory. His comments regarding Bakhmut came after a series of conflicting claims over the city sparked by the head of Russia’s Wagner Group, who said on Saturday that his forces completed its capture. Echoing Zelensky, Ukraine’s deputy defense minister reported Monday that the fight was not over and that Ukrainian troops still held buildings in the town’s southwest.
Regardless of the actual situation on the ground in Bakhmut, it is clear that Ukraine’s much-awaited counteroffensive has yet to begin. This month, Zelensky said such an advance has not started because his country does not have sufficient Western weaponry to sustain a successful offensive. This likely played a role in his trip to the G7 summit over the weekend, where he again pleaded for more support. This time, he asked, and he shall receive: the U.S. announced an additional $375 million in military aid and confirmed that it would train Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighter jets.
In other news stemming from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine:
- The governor of Russia’s Belgorod region said Monday that a group of Ukrainian saboteurs entered the area and was being repelled by local Russian forces. Ukrainian military intelligence denies being behind the intrusion and insists that it was two armed Russian opposition groups. One of the groups, the Liberty of Russia Legion, posted on Twitter that it “liberated” the border town of Kozinka and that forward units reached the district center of Graivoron.
- U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told the media that President Biden and President Zelensky engaged in talks regarding the training of Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighter jets ahead of their expected provision to Ukraine. A decision on when the jets will be delivered and which country will provide them is likely to come later. Politico reports that there is “still no plan at present to supply Ukraine with American jets, and there have been no formal requests from allies to transfer their own F-16s to Ukraine.”
- The UN-sponsored Grain Deal has been extended by two months. Previously, Russia threatened to withdraw from the agreement if its own crops and fertilizers were not removed from sanctions lists.
- Ukraine restored power to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant following a brief outage today that left it running on emergency generators. The plant is in Russian-occupied territory, and both sides blame the other for the power loss. Russia claims Ukraine disconnected the power line, while Ukrainian energy company Energoatom says the problem was caused by Russian shelling.
- Moscow is believed to be evading sanctions by purchasing materials from former Soviet republics, including Armenia, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan. Those countries, collectively, reportedly increased their exports to Russia by nearly 50% to around $15 billion between 2021 and 2022.
Researched and written by the Global Intelligence Team at AlertMedia