Weekly Situation Report: War in Ukraine

NATO Announces Plans for Extensive Exercise in Europe Amid War in Ukraine

NATO is planning to hold its largest joint command exercise since the Cold War next year, with over 40,000 troops simulating responses to potential Russian aggression on an allied nation. Named Steadfast Defender, the training is part of the alliance’s shift toward becoming more war-ready in light of the Ukraine invasion. In addition to the large number of troops, the drills will reportedly include 500–700 air combat missions and over 50 ships. Sweden will participate despite having its NATO membership held up by Turkey and now potentially Hungary, bringing the total number of nations participating to 32. The exercise, which will simulate a Russian-led coalition called Occasus and utilize real-world geographic data for added realism, will occur across Germany, Poland, and the Baltic region over February and March. The activity aligns with NATO’s plan to increase high-readiness forces to over 300,000 with a shift toward more substantial military capabilities.

In other news stemming from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine:

• Insurers covering ships near Ukraine are facing renewed concerns of Russian targeting after U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak confirmed last week that declassified intelligence revealed Moscow had fired on a civilian vessel berthed at a Black Sea port in late August. Britain’s foreign office issued a press release outlining the incident, stating that on August 24, Ukrainian forces shot down two Russian-fired Kalibr missiles as they headed toward a Liberian-flagged cargo ship in the port of Odesa. Despite the new information, another ship reportedly left Odesa safely last week, the fifth to do so since Russia exited a United Nations grain shipping pact.
• President Zelenskyy is set to visit the U.S. this week. He will attend a U.N. summit in New York before heading to Washington on Thursday, where he will meet with President Biden and congressional leadership. His arrival comes ahead of a fast-approaching September 30 federal budget deadline. The Biden administration has requested $24 billion for Ukraine assistance; however, wrangling over the final budget has put the prospects of such financing in doubt. Zelensky will surely lobby Capitol Hill as he seeks to acquire more advanced weaponry and aid from Washington.
• On the battlefield, Kyiv’s forces continue to press with some small successes. Ukraine claimed last week that it retook Andriivka, an eastern town reportedly seen by military planners as a step on the path back to Bakhmut. Russian officials have denied that Ukraine controls the city. In the south, the U.K. Ministry of Defense reports that Russia is likely reinforcing defenses around Tokmak, which they assess indicates Moscow’s growing concern over “Ukrainian tactical penetrations of the first main defensive line to the north” of the city.