Weekly Situation Report: War in Ukraine
Read on for our analysis, and check back every Monday for updates on this developing war.
Military Officials Meet to Discuss Material Aid for Ukraine, Battlefield Remains Stagnant
Western military officials from the Ukraine Defense Contact Group met in Germany last Wednesday to discuss sending Ukraine additional supplies. The meeting resulted in an announcement of $2.5 billion in aid—including Bradley fighting vehicles, Strykers, and other equipment from the U.S.—but no agreement on the provision of German or American tanks, a top ask from Kyiv that has thus far been refused. However, following the meeting, Germany’s foreign minister said that Berlin would not block Poland from sending Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, marking a shift for Germany, which had previously indicated that it would not allow the transfer of said tanks without the U.S. also agreeing to provide its own Abrams tanks. The announcement set the stage for Poland to move forward with shipping the Leopards barring any further pushback from allies.
Militarily across Ukraine, fronts remain relatively stagnant as both Ukraine and Russia work to produce more armaments ahead of projected spring offensives and counter-offensives. The Norwegian Chief of Defense recently provided an updated estimate of casualties. He claimed that Russia was approaching 180,000 killed or wounded, while Ukrainian casualties are “probably over 100,000,” not counting an additional 30,000 civilians killed.
- The International Atomic Energy Agency is placing teams of experts at all four of Ukraine’s nuclear power plants in an effort to reduce the risk of severe accidents as Russia’s war continues. IAEA technicians will also be at Chernobyl, as a precaution.
- Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, in a post on Telegram, said, “the defeat of a nuclear power in a conventional war may trigger a nuclear war”. In addition, the head of the Russian Orthodox Church said that an attempt to destroy Russia would mean the end of the world.
- Starting on February 5, the EU, along with the G-7 and its allies, will implement a cap on the price of Russian fuel exports. The cap will coincide with the EU prohibition on all imports on Russian oil products. Prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the EU imported 600,000 barrels a day of diesel fuel from Russia.
- Western banks have faced difficulty exiting the Russian market due to Putin mandating at the beginning of the Ukraine conflict that foreign owners of businesses from “unfriendly” countries would not be able to sell off property and assets.
Researched and written by the Global Intelligence Team at AlertMedia